Last Quarter of 2022...
Breakfast With Yim - The most important meal… and news of the day!
In Today’s Newsletter:
Put Your 4’s Up
Watch List: Things to keep an eye on this week
Tweet: Don’t Let Fear Win
Weekend Headlines You Missed
TikTok: Farming Drones
Atomic Habits: Chapter 1: The Surprising Power of Atomic Habits
Quote of the day:
“Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment” - John Rohn
Put Your 4’s Up
We are in the 4th quarter of 2022…
Crazy to think that we have gone through 9 months of the year and only have 3 left.
I am assuming each of you set goals for this year 9 months ago. One of mine included a personal goal of losing weight which I haven’t come close to hitting. Another was a business goal of how many sales I could make which I have greatly exceeded. Goals are tricky for many people including myself because we are trained for instant gratification. If I work on something I am immediately expecting to see results. In reality that does not work. Accomplishing goals takes time, and the bigger the goal the longer it takes.
Instead of giving up and quitting, reevaluate the goal. We have 3 months left this year. Reexamine the progress you’ve made and identify any roadblocks that have come up. Figure out what has helped you move forward this year and what has held you back.
Have you been thinking about a business idea all year, but have been too “busy” to pull the trigger? Just start it.
Is there a new skill you have been interested in learning? Start devoting 1 hour a night to learning instead of watching TV.
I am a firm believer in we are all capable of achieving our dreams if we just put in the work. It is a lot easier said than done, but the hardest part is taking that first step and creating a new habit. Don’t let the fear of failure hold you back either. Some of the best learning experiences come from failure, not from not trying.
If you haven’t progressed in your goals this year, don’t give up. If you have been smashing all of the goals you set this year, keep it up. We are in the 4th quarter and that’s where games are won and lost. Set yourself up for success come 2023!
Weekly Watch List
The stock market is getting ready for the main event this week as investors & traders alike await the Fed Meeting & Jerome Powell. Although all eyes will be on the U.S., we will also be hearing from the Bank Of Japan & Bank Of England, which should mean a lot of currency moves this week. The markets fell sharply into the red last week, as higher-than-expected inflation readings were reported. This means everyone is expecting higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve attempts to slow down inflation. Markets are widely anticipating a rate hike of 75 points, but some are even betting on an even larger hike of 100 points. Depending on what Powell says, the real focus for traders this week will be whether or not we hit new lows or find a way to bottom out.
Monday
AutoZone, Legend Biotech, and Azure Power Global report earnings
NAHB Housing Market Index
Tuesday
Neogen Corp. and Apogee Enterprises report earnings
Building Permits from August
Housing Starts from August
Day 1 of September FOMC Meeting
ECB President Lagarde Speech
Wednesday
General Mills, Lennar Corp., and Trip.com report earnings
Exisiting Home Sales from August
Day 2 of September FOMC Meeting; Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Economic and Interest Rate Forecasts Issued
Bank of Japan Policy Meeting; Interest Rate Decision
Thursday
Costco, Accenture, FedEx, FactSet Research Systems, and Darden Restaurants report earnings
Kansas Fed Composite Index for September
Bank of England Policy Meeting; Interest Rate Decision
Friday
S&P Global Composite PMI - U.S. - Flash Estimate for September
S&P Global Composite PMI - Eurozone - Flash Estimate for September
Fed Chair Powell Speech
Predictions
It is estimated there will be over 500 basis point interest rate increases around the world this week from countries’ central banks. With this much tightening happening worldwide, I am leaning towards a bearish week. That does not mean it has to be a violent tumble down, but I do think pullbacks will continue.
Since 1950, September is historically the worst month for the stock market:
Since 1896, October is considered the most volatile month of the year:
Taking both of these historically bad months for the market and mixing that in with record inflation, interest rate hikes, and mid-term elections is a recipe for a turbulent end of the year.
I think the best sector to watch for the remainder of the year will be energy. We have already seen some of the explosions in prices for oil and natural gas. As winter approaches I think there’s nowhere else for these prices to go but up.
What do you think will be the best/worst-performing stocks this week?
Will the market crash if the Fed raises rates too high? Or is the rate hike already priced in?
Would love to hear any of your predictions for the market and economy in the comment section!
Tweet Of The Day: Don’t Let Fear Win
Weekend Headlines You Missed
Uber was reportedly hacked by an 18-year-old, who told employees about the hack in Uber’s company Slack channel.
Uh-oh: FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam said the company is seeing declining shipment volume in every segment around the globe, sparking recessionary concerns.
The White House released its first framework for developing digital assets like cryptocurrency responsibly.
TerraUSD founder Do Kwon said he’s not “on the run” in response to reports that he left Singapore. Kwon is facing arrest in South Korea after his stablecoins lost $60B in value.
That was fast: Indian billionaire Gautam Adani is now the world’s second-richest person with his $146.9B fortune, unseating Jeff Bezos whose net worth slid to ~$145.8. Elon Musk remains in the top spot with $260B.
Intuitive Machines, a space company focused on lunar vehicles, announced that it will go public in a SPAC deal worth ~$1B.
Crisis averted? President Biden announced a tentative agreement between rail companies and unions, avoiding a strike that could have cost the US economy $2B per day.
Adobe intends to acquire Figma, a cloud-based design software company that allows for real-time collaboration, for $20B.
A digital “queue tracker” from the UK government showed that the line to pay respects to Queen Elizabeth II was at one point five miles long.
Kanye West told Gap it’s over, claiming the retailer breached their agreement. Gap can sell current Yeezy Gap items, but West will focus on opening his own Yeezy stores.
Lawsuit: California is suing Amazon, claiming it ropes sellers into agreements that prevent them from selling items cheaper elsewhere, driving up consumer prices.
BNPL: The US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will regulate “buy now, pay later” companies similar to credit cards.
Walmart’s new Be Your Own Model feature lets customers virtually try on clothes… if they upload a photo in basically their underwear.
TikTok Of The Day: Farming Drones
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Book Review: Atomic Habits
Executive Summary: An atomic habit is a regular practice or routine that is not only small and easy to do but is also the source of incredible power; a component of the system of compound growth. Bad habits repeat themselves again and again not because you don’t want to change, but because you have the wrong system for change. Changes that seem small and unimportant at first will compound into remarkable results if you’re willing to stick with them for years.
Here is a link to a free online PDF of the book in case you want to follow along:
Atomic Habits
Chapter 1: The Surprising Power of Atomic Habits
A habit is a behavior performed regularly and, in many cases, automatically.
Habits are the compound interest of self-improvement.
Success is the product of daily habits. Getting 1% better every day counts for a lot in the long-run.
The important thing is whether your habits are putting you on the right path. Be concerned with your current trajectory and not with your current results.
“Your outcomes are a lagging measure of your habits. Your net worth is a lagging measure of your financial habits. Your weight is a lagging measure of your eating habits. Your knowledge is a lagging measure of your learning habits. Your clutter is a lagging measure of your cleaning habits. You get what you repeat.”
If you want better results, forget about setting goals. Focus on your system instead.
Goals vs Systems
Goals are the results you want to achieve. Systems are the processes that lead to those results
Goals are good for setting a direction, but systems are best for making progress
Achieving a goal is a momentary change. Systems solve a problem for good
Goals restrict happiness, e.g. “Once I reach my goal, then I’ll be happy.” Systems make you fall in love with the process rather than the product so you don’t have to wait to permit yourself to be happy
Goals are at odds with long-term progress. Goals are about winning the game. Systems are about continuing to play the game
You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.
If you find yourself struggling to build a good habit or break a bad one, it is not because you have lost your ability to improve. It is often because you have not yet crossed what James calls, the “Plateau of Latent Potential.”
The 4th quarter or the "Witching Hour", where winners lose and losers win.